OK. Were' on our way it's 16:50 Pacific Time, Bush-Kerry 39 - 3, no surprises yet although rumors abound that Kerry's looking good. The Zogby Poll may have something to do with that.

It may not be smooth running tonight, the site has been down a few times due to problems at Hosting Matters.

According to Powerline, Bush is leading in Florida after 20% of the votes counted: 55% to 44%.

17:10 Barack Obama is in. Again, no surprise.

17:20 CNN says Bush is doing better than four years ago in Florida.

17:25 Vanessa Kerry's on, she's not looking very happy. Her father is still busy, which makes sense I remember Gore four years ago frantically calling New Mexico and that indeed had an impact. Kerry may be doing the same right now.

17:35 James Joyner is liveblogging too.

17:41 Bush ahead now with 102-77 but we're still in predictable territory. Conflicting reports of the youth vote, Sullivan says it's big, Powerline says it fizzled.

17:45 Thanks Andrew for linking to the latest on the Van Gogh murder below. In a way, this murder is once more evidence of what we're up against and underlines the need to pick a President that understands the War on Terror. I think I know who that might be.

17:52 No surprises in the Senate, Backcountry Conservative is liveblogging as well.

17:57 My four and two year old have just asked me if we can't watch the Olympics. They're smart, they know there won't be any children's stuff on tonight so they pick something they and Dad may like. I think: bedtime girls!

18:00 Carville, Begala, Carslon, Novak ... nothing new.

18:02 Bush - Kerry 155 - 112

18:05 Dinner: Homemade Lamb Curry with rice

18:23 Erskine Bowles in losing the Senate race in North Carolina. So, not a good Clinton night, let's see if Arkansas is now a swing state, which is what the Clinton camp predicted a few days ago.

18:30 Bush is doing well in Florida and Ohio, but getting hammered in Pennsylvania. Jeff Greenfield says it's too early to assign any potential outcome to these numbers.

18:32 Ralph Nader is underperforming compared to 2000!

18:38 Via Instapundit, realtime numbers for Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The Instapundit is having a difficult night, site is up and down, up and down it seems.

18:46 The Evangelical Outpost is liveblogging as is Steven Taylor.

18:49 Bush - Kerry 171 - 112. Report from the Bush family, the President looks better than he did four years ago.

19:00 Iowa, Nevada, Utah and Montana polls close. Utah is confirmed for Bush, it's 176-112 now. Iowa is the one to watch with 7 electoral votes.

19:04 Missouri with 11 electoral votes is now very tight 51-49 for Bush with 19% of precincts reporting.

19:05 Nader is less of a spoiler than four years ago it seems.

19:06 Just finished my dessert, lime sorbet. The kids have gone to bed, it's quiet around me now.

19:11 LaShawn Barber is liveblogging too, as is The Jawa Report.

19:13 Arkansas: for Bush. It's 182 - 112 now.

19:14 Missouri: for Bush. It's 193 - 112 now.

19:26 With 36% of all precincts reporting the popular vote is now at 52-48 in favor of Bush. Too early to reach any conclusions but with more than a third of the vote counted, significant.

19:32 The Jawa Report is saying that New Hampshire is breaking for Bush. That's an important win for Bush if it materializes.

19:37 Priceless comment from Powerline on Barack Obama "It will also be interesting to see how Barak Obama does in Washington. A little time working with Ted Kennedy, Tom Daschle (if he's re-elected), and Barbara Boxer could remove quite a bit of his luster" Yep, it will be interesting to see how Barack will position himself, as of today all options are open for him.

19:42 OK. Irene, my wife, is cleaning up the dinner mess and the rest of the house. She asked that this be mentioned on the liveblog. Here you go, darling.

19:45 Here's a thought that occurs to me from time to time. This whole thing is a media construct to get us all to stay glued to the tube until well after midnight. The Daschle-Thune race is now 50-50, only votes apart. Florida is open, Ohio is open but leaning Bush, Pennsylvania is Kerry.

19:55 Pennsylvania is now Kerry territory. It's 193 - 133.

19:58 Bush has a clear lead in Florida. It's starting to break for Bush, he could even lose Ohio in which case he'll win 270 - 268.

20:01 With 43% counted in Ohio it's 53-46 in favor of Bush. We're getting very close to calling it for Bush. New Hampshire is leaning to Bush too.

20:06 Judy Woodruff is wondering where Joe Lockhart is getting his info regarding Florida. I think Florida is no longer a battleground. I call it for Bush.

20:09 Davids Medienkritik is liveblogging German TV. If you're interested in slanted reporting go check out the Euro-American blog.

20:15 Kevin Drum thinks Ohio will be this year's Florida: lawyers go north.

20:26 Tea time.

20:32 Wisconsin is looking like it's going to be Kerry territory, this is the state I had confidently put in the Bush column. Colorado is still looking good for Bush, Kerry has opened strong in Nevada with 3% of the votes counted.

20:43 No one dares to call Florida but Judy Woodruff is telling us that a Kerry campaign source has pretty much conceded the state.

20:45 I wonder why Ohio is considered to be the next Florida. It looks red to me.

20:48 Marc Racicot is on TV, the former Montana Governor is one of the better Republican operatives and he's certainly cabinet material for Bush II. He points out that Bush will pick up New Mexico which would cancel out a Nevada loss.

21:10 We're at 234-188 for Bush. Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan are all trending for Kerry.

21:16 Without Ohio (20), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5) Maine (1 is open) which are the question marks I am at 249 - 254, Bush-Kerry. It's very close but as time wears one Kerry is not catching up in Ohio.

21:23 Barack Obama is on TV echoing my argument that the undivided nation is not a result of Iraq but finds its origins in the early days of the Bush administration. The more you look at tonight's numbers, the stronger the conclusion there's no clear call for change. The nation is still divided but there is a preference for four more Bush years and it will be up to the President to define the state of "unitedness".

21:41 Just look at the popular vote: 51-48, not exactly what was predicted by the polls. Yes, I submitted a 3.8% margin in favor of Bush, we're getting close to that particular number.

21:45 If the networks had not adapted their calling strategies following the 2000 debacle, they probably would have called it for Bush by now.

21:46 Thune is ahead of Daschle. Jeff Greenfield expains that Daschle had gone native in Washington, something that didn't play well in South Dakota.

21:50 FOX has called Ohio for Bush. Those who want to go to bed early can go now. I'll hang on for a few more hours.

21:52 David Gergen nails it. A massive night for the Republicans, Karl Rove has hit a home run. James Carville agrees. Interestingly all the new and young voters have not been able to make a dent in the Republican hegemony as was predicted earlier today. Remember: this is democracy, the voters have spoken, clearly.

22:08 Bush picks up the one remaining electoral college vote in Maine.

22:12 Wolf Blitzer and Larry King are struggling with the new reality. Jeff Greenfield and David Gergen are the sharpest political analysts around, they actually understand what is happening, not everyone at CNN does.

22:15 Judy Woodruff continues to be reluctant to call Ohio for Bush.

22:21 Nader spoils Iowa for Kerry, Bush is ahead by 4,000 votes.

22:25 Republicans retain control of Senate. They have the House of Representatives and in the next hour Bush will claim his second term. It a phenomenal night for the GOP and a crushing defeat for the Democrats.

22.40 Bush' popular vote margin is now 3.5%.

22:52 Wolf Blitzer is gloating, Ohio is now too close to call. Apparently the Kerry campaign is going into "not-concede, recount mode". The numbers seem to indicate that it's close and that we may not learn the results anytime soon but with a 3.5% margin in the popular vote in favor of Bush this is just not going to be Florida 2000.

23:00 Iowa is in play, final results probably not in until tomorrow. If Ohio and Iowa remain unclear then based on my numbers we will not know who the President will be until later tomorrow. Minnesota and Michigan are not in the Bush column now. Still, a Kerry win in the Electoral College and 3.5% lagging in the popular vote would be a tenuous victory. I don't think it will happen.

23:23 Ohio's margin is widening, I think it is not realistic to expect that the 126,000 margin will change after counting the remaining 3% (and absentee ballots). Just not likely. A reader e-mails: "a bitter victory for Bush". Given the popular margin and the expectations I would call it a "decent win".

23:30 That was John Edwards who hasn't figured out we're not in the 2000 universe. But it means we're not going to have a result tonight, they're not conceding. Bush may opt for a recount in Wisconsin.

23:41 Bush still leads with 3.5% in the popular vote, but if Kerry ekes out a win in the Electoral College with these numbers that will not only make for an "unearned win", it will poison US politics even further. And it will prevent badly needed reform in the Democratic ranks. Let's hope that the popular vote gets reflected in the electoral vote. That would even be healthy for the Democrats.

That's it. See you tomorrow.